Ice Age Facts

by Rolf A. F. Witzsche 



1 - The Ice Age is coming. 

For the last two million years Ice Age conditions have been the normal state on this planet. We also know that during the last million years brief warm periods interrupted the Ice Age conditions quite regularly every hundred thousand years.

2 - The interglacial warm periods

 are generally believed to have been app. 10,500 years in duration. Estimates vary from 10,000 to 13,000 years, with 10,800 years being the most recent perception. With the last Ice Age having ended 10,800 years ago, our present interglacial period is coming to an end.

3 - Ice Age transition

According to best current estimates the transition to the next Ice Age may happen within the next 20 to 150 years. Some suggest that it may have already begun since many glaciers around the world are getting longer again, including the Greenland Ice Shield. The most recent estimates expect the transition to Ice Age conditions to happen 'quickly' from as little as a single year to app. 50 years. This means that full Ice Age climatic conditions will likely prevail within the next 150 years or as early as twenty years from now.

4 - Ice Age Cooling

Under Ice Age climatic conditions the global average temperature becomes reduced by 40% towards freezing, from today's global average temperature of 15 degrees Celsius to app. 9 degrees, with a potentially devastating impact on global agricultural production.

5 - We have been given a foretaste

 of what a cooler climate means. The 1814 Tambora volcanic eruption in Indonesia  turned the year 1815 into "the year without summer" in which crop failures occurred in India, and probably elsewhere. It is estimated that close to 100,000 people died as the result of the relatively minor cooling of short duration

6 -  Ice Age related cycles

 has been under investigation for about 150 years already. The Scottish amateur astronomer and mathematician James Croll postulated the first theory in the mid-1800s. He discovered the 100,000 years cycle of the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit relative to the Sun. The cycle produces an approximately three million miles variance. Mr. Croll's work was later extended by Milutin Milankovitch, who discovered other long-term cycles effecting the Earth's climate, such as the 43,000 years cycle of a three decree shift in the tilt of the Earth's spin axis. In addition he discovered a 26,000 years cyclical variance of the Earth's spin axis relative to the poles, and a 22,000 years cyclical variance in the position of the equinoxes on the Earth's orbital path.
(see. 21th Century Science and Technology magazine - Washington DC, Nov. 1997 special report, The Coming Ice Age.)

The Milankovitch-based theory is that the overlapping of these long-term cycles dramatically affects the intensity of solar radiation received by the Earth. Right now the overlapping is such that the beginning of an Ice Age transition is indicated. However, these long-term cycles do not explain the Mini Ice Ages and warming periods as we have experienced them during the last thousand years. These mini-cycles are said to be determined by solar cycles of sunspots and magnetic storms, coincident with Jaworowski's findings who recognizes the solar cycle variations as the key factor in climatic variations and in the cause of Ice Ages. It may well be that whatever causes the orbital variation of the Earth around the sun, in its 100,000 years pattern, is intricately interrelated with the internal dynamics of the Sun and its own long term cycles of solar activities.

7 - Solar Cycles determine our climate and Ice Ages

"The indisputable reality is, that the universe is full of cyclical variations, some of which effect the Earth. The Earth's orbit around the Sun, for instance, shifts back and forth in relationship to the Sun by three million kilometers in a hundred thousand years cycle. At appears that whatever causes those variations of the orbital eccentricity affects also the Sun internally, causing variances in solar activities. According to observed evidence, the huge climate variations that cause Ice Age periods, as well as the warm periods in-between, are the direct result of long term cycles inside the Sun that effect the intensity of solar flaring, and thereby the solar winds and magnetic storms. These in turn deflect some of the cosmic radiation that is normally bombarding the Earth that is vital for cloud formation. The cosmic radiation ionizes the atoms and molecules in the troposphere where the weather is created. The ionized particles act as catalysts for water vapor condensation and cloud formation. In times of low solar activity we get a lot of cosmic radiation coming in, because less is deflected, and as the result we get increased cloud formation. The increase in clouds reflects more solar heat back into space, and so the climate gets colder. It also reduces the water vapor content, and thereby reduces the greenhouse effect, whereby the climate gets colder still. The colder climate also reduces the evaporation rate, which further reduces the water-vapor greenhouse effect. This triply self-escalating interaction appears to cause the rapid drop in temperatures that appears to be typical for getting into Ice Age conditions. From the present global average temperature of fifteen degrees Celsius, an Ice Age cooling down to nine or even eight degrees has been discovered in the earth's glacial records, for the Ice Ages. That amounts to a huge drop. It causes massive snowfalls, which accumulate into giant glaciers and continental ice sheets in the polar regions, that are known to have been more than a mile deep, which then flow across the land like creeping molasses. During the last Ice Age these kinds of huge ice fields covered all of Canada and much of the Northeastern US. While the ice fields advance extremely slowly, the rapid drop in temperatures and changing cloudiness will affect the global agriculture almost immediately. Our entire worldwide food production is presently keyed to the interglacial climate. Even minor upsets have caused massive crop failure in the past. Ice Age climatic conditions would likely be globally catastrophic for food production. Our food plants simply don't grow well in the cold, and they certainly won't grow if the ground is covered in snow all year round. If mankind doesn't prepare itself for the coming Ice Age conditions the northern nations like Canada, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Ireland, England, Germany, and so forth, will simply cease to exist. During the last Ice Age Canada and the northwestern USA and were covered with immense ice sheets, and ice flows like those that carved the English Channel. While these ice flows take thousands of years to accumulate, the agricultural capacity in these regions becomes disabled almost immediately, probably long before the ground remains permanently frozen. Even the USA will loose much of its food production capacity that way. And that's the bottom line that we cannot avoid. So what do we do about it? Do we lay ourselves down to die, or kill each other in endless Food Wars?"

Based on work by world-renowned atmospheric scientist, Professor Zbigniew Jaworowski, MD, PhD, DSc, Chairman of the scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw. 
(See, 21st Century Science and Technology magazine, Winter 2003-2004, Washington DC.)
"The Ice Age Is Coming" by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc. (pdf format)




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